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Caustic soda industry will still face challenges

wallpapers News 2020-08-17

caustic soda market in 2014 can be described as bleak. Except for the price rise caused by the shutdown of chlor alkali plant during the APEC meeting in mid November, the price of caustic soda in 2014 has been in a downward trend. Taking 99% flake caustic soda as an example, the annual cumulative decline reached 16.5%. In 2015, the caustic soda market will still face multiple challenges, among which the state's efforts to control environmental protection safety will be strengthened, the excess capacity of caustic soda industry the gradual shrinkage of downstream dem will continue to form a huge test for the caustic soda market.

from the perspective of production capacity, as early as 2014, the caustic soda market had been in the industry pattern of overcapacity for a long time. In recent years, with the investment of various regions, new caustic soda projects have sprung up, the capacity growth is very obvious. In 2014, the newly increased capacity of caustic soda reached more than 1 million tons, the eliminated capacity was only 330000 tons. The annual total capacity was as high as 90.7 million tons, the self-sufficiency rate had already exceeded 100%. The domestic caustic soda industry continued to be in a state of oversupply. In 2015, there will still be a certain number of projects planned to be launched, including the 600000 T / a caustic soda plant of Jiuhong new materials Co., Ltd., the 400000 T / a unit of Ruiheng Chemical Co., Ltd. of Shanxi Xiangkuang group. According to statistics, nearly 2 million tons of new caustic soda units are planned to be put into operation in 2015. At that time, the pattern of more fewer caustic soda plants will be further intensified.

at the same time, although the downstream industries maintain a stable growth trend, the growth rate obviously lags behind the capacity growth. Alumina, as the most important downstream product of caustic soda, has a direct impact on the trend of caustic soda market. It is worth noting that at the end of 2014, Australian Prime Minister Abbott announced that after the full implementation of the FTA, Australia's alumina export tariff to China will be exempted. The tariff exemption will inevitably stimulate more Australian alumina exports to China. According to statistics, China's alumina import volume in 2014 was 5.2764 million tons, of which 3.1522 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 59.7% of the total import volume. In addition, the price of imported alumina is more advantageous, the exemption of Australian tariff will further squeeze the market share of domestic alumina products reduce its dem for upstream caustic soda.

in recent years, the state's implementation of energy conservation emission reduction environmental safety has been increasing. At the beginning of 2015, the implementation of the new environmental protection law, which is known as "the strictest in history", will bring pressure on caustic soda, a high energy consumption high pollution industry. It is reported that "code for safety design of caustic soda plant" will also be issued in 2015, which will highly unify the safety requirements of caustic soda plant. If caustic soda enterprises want to meet the current strict environmental protection requirements, the upgrading transformation of environmental protection process required by them will inevitably increase a lot of costs, which is even worse for the caustic soda enterprises in trouble. In the long run, with the implementation of the new environmental protection law, the integration of chlor alkali industry is imperative. Some chlor alkali enterprises with small production capacity, incomplete construction of environmental protection facilities diaphragm production process will gradually withdraw from the market, the new production capacity will be restrained to a certain extent, which will have a positive effect on the caustic soda industry. However, due to the large capacity base of caustic soda, the industry pattern can not be fundamentally changed in a short period of time. In terms of terminal dem, the data shows that the growth rate of real estate development investment fell by 9.3% in 2014, which means that the real estate investment boom has begun to cool down, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum dem will be correspondingly reduced, thus further reducing the dem for caustic soda. To sum up, in 2015, the oversupply the high pressure of environmental protection policy will still run through the whole industry, the caustic soda market is still difficult to rise in a short time.

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