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Chemicals ushered in a long-term rise PTA ushered in a new round of recovery

wallpapers News 2020-10-23

in the near future, the trend of the whole industrial products market is relatively strong, especially the long-term boom of chemicals. There is no doubt that the strong rise of crude oil is the main basis, or even the only basis, for the rebound of chemicals. The most typical examples of

appear in PTA market. Generally speaking, the end of the month is the date of ACP negotiation for PX upstream of PTA. On January 30, the ACP price of February reached in the negotiation was 710 US dollars / T CFR Asia, which was significantly lower than the price of PX spot goods of US $755 / T CFR China at that time. At the same time, the market expects PTA start to rise, polyester start to decline. Looking around the fundamentals are bad, which directly triggered the night of PTA large increase positions down, only one step away from the historical low point. But helpless overnight crude oil strong rebound, bullish situation, PTA launched a wave of recovery.

, but the fundamental is still that fundamental. PTA enterprises' operating rate has changed from 73% on January 30 to 77.5% today, the polyester operating rate has decreased from 76% to 73% in the same period. The contradiction between supply dem is actually deepening, but the futures spot prices are actually rising. In fact,

are not only PTA, PE, PP even methanol PVC in coal chemical industry rebound strongly, but the industry fundamentals are still empty, PTA methanol futures are much higher than spot. Before July 2014,

crude oil fluctuated by two or three points a day, which had little impact on chemicals. However, since the second half of last year, the impact of crude oil on chemicals seems to have increased suddenly, which is closely related to the market environment. When the market generally expects that crude oil will not fluctuate significantly in the future, the impact of crude oil changes on downstream chemicals is relatively limited. When the fluctuation of crude oil is obviously increased has reached a certain low level, the market's expectation of crude oil rebound begins to rise. The lower the crude oil price is, the stronger this expectation will be. When the crude oil price rises slightly, the enthusiasm for bottom reading in the whole chemical market will burst out, leading to a rapid rise in the futures price, especially for the relatively "better" varieties such as plastics Even more rapidly. Under the current market conditions, when can chemicals return to their own supply dem fundamentals? Crude oil is the main source of chemicals, especially when the profit level of most chemicals is very limited or even at a loss, the original oil price determines the center of gravity or value center of chemicals. Only when the crude oil stabilizes in a certain position or range, the center of gravity of chemicals will be relatively stable. At that time, the industry's own fundamentals will play a major role in the price. The leading factors of market trend are different in different stages.

therefore, in the current situation of crude oil price volatility, we can not only consider the futures trend based on the industry fundamentals. So the problem is, as the "king of commodities", the price trend of crude oil will be affected not only by the supply dem of the industry, but also by geopolitics other factors. It is not easy to grasp the price trend of crude oil. This increases the risk of chemical operation in the near future. For the current chemical products, light position hedging are better than unilateral heavy positions.

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