Commodities may start a new round of decline

crude oil has started a new round of decline, which may lead to the decline of some commodities.

on the 21st, the business agency released the price rise fall list of 58 bulk commodities in the third week of March. The data showed that only 13 kinds of commodities rose on a month on month basis, while 37 kinds of commodities fell on a month on month basis, focusing on energy nonferrous metals, commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the energy sector. The average rise fall of the week was - 0.51%. According to the data of

, the domestic commodity market continued to fall more rise less in the third week. Among the 58 commodities monitored, 22.41% of the commodities rose 63.79% of the commodities fell, which was larger than the decline in the second week. In addition, the decline also continued to deepen, with an average rise fall of - 0.48% in the second week - 0.51% in the third week. The biggest decline was in LPG, down 8.96%. Liu Xintian, Secretary General of China Commodity Development Research Center (CDRC) special commentator of China's leading newspaper, Liu Xintian, said in an interview with the economic guide reporter that the market performance in March shows that the current commodity market has entered a "cold spring". According to the statistics of

leading reporters, the energy sector fell across the board, fuel oil methanol fell back one after another, while gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas, coke steam coal (Bohai Rim) also continued to decline. Liu Xintian believes that the continued decline in crude oil is the main reason for the decline in the energy sector. According to Liu Xintian,

are mainly caused by three reasons. First, crude oil has broken down again, the "unstoppable" crude oil has directly shaken the market confidence; second, due to the "early spring" factor, there must be early cold in early spring. This year's market is at least 15 days ahead of schedule as in previous years, it is normal to end "Yangchun" ahead of schedule; third, it is "new normal". Since 2012, commodities have been falling in shock, which has become a normal situation. It is difficult to fundamentally change this situation in 2015. In view of the fact that most commodity prices have been at a low level, the space for further downward trend has been significantly reduced compared with previous years, it is difficult to reproduce the waterfall roller coaster declines, the steady downward trend may become the "new normal".

"crude oil future market is uncertain, it is more likely to continue a small downward trend. The new floor price may be $40. If crude oil does not fall sharply, the decline of commodities is also expected to be shallow. In 2015, the decline of commodities will be the second wave or not a big wave. " Liu Xintian predicted that the market will continue to decline slightly in late March, the commodity price index BPI may fall below 760 points.

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