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Lack of crude oil firepower

wallpapers News 2020-07-31
Although the rebound of oil price of

has a little "pause", the "king of commodities" still exists. The cost support has stimulated the enthusiasm of funds in the field to do more, which has made the domestic chemical industry sector prosperous recently. Since January 15 this year,

have been rising from methanol, plastics, PP to PTA. The contract of Zhengchun 1506 has been up down for a time, with a cumulative increase of nearly 26%. PP plastics have also risen to three-month highs. In the near future, the rising of oil prices in the "peak season" "high oil prices" were mainly driven by the expectation that the oil prices of "spkds" "petrochemicals" were also boosted by the increase of oil prices in China. However, after the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises return to work more slowly, the overall consumption is still cool. Under the current situation that the periodic rise of crude oil is blocked, the rebound market of chemicals triggered by crude oil may come to an end, the trend of subsequent varieties will follow their respective fundamentals.

chemicals collectively soared, crazy methanol led the rise of

was boosted by the continuous decline in drilling number of oil fields operated by the United States, interruption of crude oil production in Libya, reduction of crude oil export from Iraq. The price of US crude oil began to rebound rapidly at the end of January, but the rebound soon stopped at the pressure platform of 57 US dollars / barrel. Subsequently, under the influence of long short term factors, crude oil entered the shock consolidation market. According to statistics,

, since January 29, US crude oil has risen from US $47.69/barrel to US $55 / barrel, with an interval increase of more than 13%; during the same period, the crude oil index has risen from US $52.15/barrel to over US $62 / barrel, with an accumulative increase of more than 20%.

as the cost source of chemical products - the stability strength of international oil price undoubtedly provide various varieties of downstream chemical industry with more confidence. Before that, the sharp decline of chemical products is closely related to the fall of oil prices. Therefore, the valuation of chemical products prices must be reexamined evaluated due to the stronger oil prices. " Baocheng futures researcher Chen Dong told reporters.

in the early stage of the technical oversold, coupled with the continuous rebound of crude oil, stimulated the enthusiasm of funds on the floor, chemical products started a continuous rebound. According to the reporter's statistics, since January 15, Zhengzhou alcohol 1506 contract has increased by 25.65%; pta1505 has increased by 12.67%; pp1505 has increased by 17.34%; plastic 1505 has increased by 17.11%; rubber 1505 has increased by nearly 10%; pvc1505 has risen by 8.5% from 4920 yuan / ton on January 27.

Chen Dong believes that there are three reasons behind the strong rebound of chemical products: first, China has started the cycle of reducing the reserve rate interest rate, the liquidity is abundant, which promotes the collective strength of chemical products; second, the international oil price has changed from the previous unilateral falling posture to the shock bottoming mode, which gives support to the cost side of chemical products; third, after the chemical products have experienced a sharp decline in the early stage After the release of negative factors, Bulls' confidence has recovered the conditions for technical rebound are available.

have raised the current price of methanol sharply. Chen Dong added that the main reason is that the market expects that the frequent invasion of cold weather in the north will cause the tank car transportation to be blocked, the rising risk of supply interruption will lead to the lack of downstream procurement supply. Relatively speaking, the market hype factor is relatively large.

cost support will return to fundamentals.

industry insiders believe that if oil prices continue to strengthen in the future, the principle of rising tide will certainly promote the price center of chemical industry plate to move up again. However, in the current situation of crude oil rise blocked, whether the chemical rebound market can continue to be questioned. Brent crude oil futures for April fell $3.04, or 4.9%, to $59.54 a barrel on concerns of continued oversupply. The decline in the number of


drilling platforms can not directly reflect the reduction of oil production. At the same time, the decline rate of the whole OPEC production is very limited. It can be seen that the sustainability strength of the factors driving oil price rebound are limited Anxin futures analyst Niu Hui said.

Niu Hui believes that the crude oil market will enter the traditional consumption off-season in the later stage, the refineries will focus on maintenance, the crude oil processing capacity will continue to decline. At the same time, the overall rise in oil prices in February eased the pressure on us shale oil companies, the decline in the number of drilling wells significantly contracted, which will aggravate the pressure on later inventory. Overall, compared with February, the crude oil market fundamentals in March will be more pessimistic, the oil price will show a steady downward trend.

return to the fundamentals of chemicals. Some people think that the downstream consumption is cold after the festival, the performance of supply dem does not support the continued rebound of chemicals. It is worth noting that from the perspective of the capital flow of various varieties in the domestic futures market on March 3, the capital outflow of Zheng alcohol index was 180 million yuan, that of plastic index was 150 million yuan, that of Shanghai Rubber index was 98.64 million yuan, but that of PTA index was 70.27 million yuan. Yuan Ming, an analyst with

, believes that the current rebound in chemicals is still dominated by the upstream trend terminal dem, among which methanol may be relatively strong due to olefin dem; plastics PTA depend on the improvement of downstream dem, the current fundamental performance is general.

Chen Dong said that at present, the main factors behind the trend of chemical products are crude oil prices, liquidity policies changes in the attributes of specific varieties. If oil prices continue to strengthen in the future, while the U.S. slows down the pace of interest rate hikes, Europe, Japan China accelerate the pace of liquidity release, some products such as methanol encounter changes in commodity attributes at the supply dem end, it is expected that the rising prices of chemicals some varieties will continue to deduce.

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