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PTA is not easy to go up sharply

wallpapers News 2020-07-22
The inventory consumption ratio of

rose to a 10 month high in February. During the Spring Festival, international oil prices fell sharply, leading to the low opening of domestic chemical futures on the first trading day after the festival. However, due to the better than expected initial PMI value of HSBC in February, the chemical futures opened lower went higher, maintaining the trend characteristics of strong oscillation before the festival. PTA futures are relatively weak.

international oil price oscillation callback

was affected by the continuous rise of US crude oil production the continuous accumulation of stocks. During the Spring Festival, international oil prices reversed the previous strong rebound trend made an oscillatory correction. As of February 24, the main WTI crude oil contract closed at US $49.28/barrel, down 5 US dollars / barrel or 9.2% compared with that before the Spring Festival, while Brent crude oil contract in April closed at $58.66/barrel, down 3.87 US dollars compared with that before the Spring Festival Yuan / barrel or 6.18%. In the week ending February 13, US crude oil production reached 9.28 million barrels / day, with a weekly increase of 54000 barrels / day, the US commercial inventory increased by 7.7 million barrels to 425.6 million barrels, a record high in 30 years. At present, the downstream refineries are in the off-season dem for seasonal maintenance, the international crude oil supply shows no sign of contraction. It is a high probability event that the international crude oil inventory including the United States continues to accumulate. In addition, OPEC denied the statement of Nigeria's oil minister that OPEC countries would hold an emergency meeting, indicating that the Saudi led Gulf countries still adhere to the policy of not reducing production. Production from Libya's largest oil field has recovered, Iraq's crude oil exports are expected to resume in the next few weeks, OPEC's crude oil supply will be abundant. Therefore, under the influence of sufficient supply of crude oil market seasonal dem in the off-season, the probability of international oil price maintaining wide bottom oscillation in the later period is large.

PX imports remain high

in January, against the background of domestic major commodity import shrinking sharply, China's PX import remained at a high level of 945000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. This shows that domestic PTA factories have a good dem for raw material px. On the other h, PTA factories adopt the strategy of hoarding PX at the end of the year strive for an active position for the pricing power game of PX in the whole year.

from the perspective of domestic supply, the load of 1 million tons of plant in Qingdao Lidong was reduced to 50% to 60%; the 1.4 million tons unit of Fujia Dahua was shut down due to equipment failure, the domestic PX unit load was maintained at 66.7%. Considering the higher operating load of domestic PTA plants in February the month on month decrease of PX import volume due to Spring Festival factors, PX will be in the stage of high inventory digestion. However, due to the large inventory pressure of PX itself the expected commissioning of 1.6 million tons of PX plant in Sinopec, the space for PX price rise is limited.

PTA are in the stage of social inventory accumulation. Around the Spring Festival,

PTA plants continued the high load operation characteristics of the previous years, with the operating rate maintained at a high level around 75%, while the operating load of polyester downstream gradually dropped to a low level of 66.4%, the operating load of Jiangsu Zhejiang looms dropped to the lowest level of 10% in the whole year. In this way, the social inventory of PTA will accumulate at least 450000 tons to 1.37 million tons in February, the inventory consumption ratio will rise to a 10 month high near 60%.

terminal dem rebound is not strong,

with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, terminal loom polyester start load will gradually increase. However, based on the analysis of the seasonal characteristics of textile orders polyester production, due to the relatively late spring festival in 2015 the delay of autumn winter dem peak season at the end of 2014, it is expected that the dem peak season in spring summer of 2015 will also be postponed accordingly. Therefore, the seasonal rebound of terminal dem in the short term is not strong, the boosting effect on upstream raw materials is limited.

is expected to PTA futures in the short term difficult to rise significantly.

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Tag: PTA