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PTA will still face downward pressure

wallpapers News 2020-09-25

Since the end of January, international crude oil has soared sharply since its low level.

NYMEX crude oil has risen by nearly US $10 / barrel for three consecutive trading days, or more than 20%, prompting a round of rebound of domestic chemical products.

From the overall growth point of view, methanol was the strongest, followed by plastics, followed by PP, PTA was relatively weak.

The reason is still determined by the fundamentals.

The rise of international oil price is weak, the continuous sharp rebound of international crude oil since the end of January has changed the previous unilateral downward trend.

The speed strength of market turn is often beyond the expectation of the vast majority of people, especially when the fundamentals have not changed significantly.

Such trend change mainly comes from the change of market expectation.

According to the monitoring data of the capital changes of the four largest energy ETFs in the United States, since November last year, a large number of over-the-counter funds have begun to intervene in the energy market.

After a unilateral decline for more than half a year, long-term funds have found the investment value of the crude oil market, have been involved in it.

In addition, the weekly drilling platform data released by the US oil service companies also triggered investors' expectations of a decline in US crude oil production in the future.

Driven by this, the oil price rebounded in a restorative way.

However, the US crude oil supply is still in the anti reality stage of increasing oil supply relative to the historical high.

Therefore, after this round of repair market, the weak fundamentals may cause the oil price to return to the downward trend, thus forming a new round of impact on domestic chemical products.

PTA inventory continues to accumulate.

In January February of this year, domestic PX imports remained at a high level.

PTA manufacturers showed a high enthusiasm for starting operations, which was basically above 70%.

Even if the downstream polyester load was reduced during the Spring Festival, the operating rate of PTA enterprises was still around 75%.

In addition, during the domestic Spring Festival holiday, Hengli Petrochemical's 2.

2 million tons of new plant was officially put into operation, making the total domestic PTA production capacity reach 45.

68 million tons, exceeding the total polyester production capacity, the pressure of excess supply was further revealed.

According to the estimation of CCF, the domestic PTA social inventory increased by more than 300000 tons in February, the supply pressure will be concentrated in March.

Therefore, from the perspective of supply inventory, PTA spot price will be significantly under pressure.

The pressure on warehouse receipts is increasing.

Due to the existence of futures arbitrage space in the early stage, a large number of industrial funds actively participate in the risk-free arbitrage operation of buying spot throwing futures, resulting in the continuous accumulation of warehouse receipts in the exchange.

As long as this price difference structure has always existed, then the delivery volume of 1505 contract will reach a record high probability.

Therefore, the huge amount of warehouse receipts not only puts pressure on the spot price, but also acts as a deterrent to the 1505 contract term price.

Risk points: from the cash flow calculation of external PX PTA at the present stage, both of them have been in continuous loss, especially the loss tolerance of upstream PX is relatively limited.

If the continuous loss or the loss range is further exped, it is not ruled out that PX enterprises should increase maintenance efforts, which will lead to the continuous recovery of PX price, thus promoting PTA enterprises to exp the loss range centralized maintenance.

In addition, the current inventory is mainly concentrated in the hs of PTA manufacturers.

If polyester dem can be started as scheduled after the festival, the transfer of inventory will be conducive to the promotion of PTA enterprises' discourse power.

Therefore, from the perspective of cash flow inventory transfer, PTA price may rise in the future.

Based on the above analysis, under the pressure of limited crude oil rising space, increased inventory pressure huge warehouse receipts, PTA futures price in the later period may face a high fall.

However, taking into account the current PX PTA production enterprises are in negative cash flow, once the future inventory pressure increases again, the rise caused by centralized maintenance may reappear.

Therefore, in terms of specific operation, it is suggested that investors adopt the strategy of short selling every rebound, pay close attention to the changes of device operation dem, do a good job in strict stop loss.


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Tag: PTA