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The risk of chemical products is rising due to the rise and fall of chemicals

wallpapers News 2020-10-31

on March 4, crazy chemicals finally showed signs of fatigue, in which methanol was close to the limit of decline in the intraday trading, while PTA, PE / > LLDPE PP all ended the pace of continuous upward attack closed down, but PVC closed up. The logical source of the rebound from the original chemical products is the result of the superposition of cost driven, expected driven manufacturer price increase. However, if these three factors lack the fulfillment of expected dem recovery, the greater the resilience, the greater the risk of withdrawal. At present, the downstream dem of most chemicals has not been started yet, the replenishment of chemical products is only a small part or remains in the expectation. However, the negative effects of the return of crude oil to the downward trend, the widening of the price difference between futures spot prices the full warehouse receipts are increasing, the risk of "boom bust" of chemicals is on the rise.

cost driven turn light. Recently, international crude oil has been stagnant. The price of WTI light crude oil contract in April has fallen from the high of 55.05 US dollars / barrel set in February, has been hovering around 47-51 dollars / barrel at the end of February early March; ice crude oil contract in April also fluctuates around $60 / barrel.

from the fundamental point of view, although Saudi Arabia raised the price of sending to the United States, the current high inventory, seasonal maintenance of refineries the fund's increase in short orders will suppress the rebound of crude oil, which is likely to return to the downward trend. According to the data released by the U.S. Energy Administration, the U.S. crude oil supply has reached an 80 year high, surplus crude oil has flooded into Cushing, Oklahoma's crude oil delivery area, resulting in the shortage of local oil storage capacity. Cushing's oil storage capacity has reached 2 / 3 of its total reserves, which means that WTI has a huge short delivery capacity for crude oil. Unless the fall in oil prices leads to cross regional price differentials covering transportation costs, Cushing's inventory will remain high.

are the peak period of seasonal maintenance in American refineries from March to May. Data show that the capacity utilization rate of US refineries dropped to 87.4% at the end of February, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline in March. Changes in production will not be immediate, so oversupply is likely to worsen further. In addition, according to the position data released by CFTC, the net long position of WTI crude oil held by the fund decreased significantly in the week ending February 24, from 300000 to 270000. From the perspective of raw materials finished products, raw materials such as coking coal, Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, propylene PX rose by - 0.14%, 16%, 15%, 25% respectively in February The growth rates of methanol, LLDPE, PP, PTA PVC were 15.66%, 15.19%, 14.88%, 6.98% 5.26%, respectively. Therefore, most of the chemical products increased more than the raw materials, the price difference between raw materials finished products was significantly narrowed.

from the perspective of futures spot price difference, due to the long-term monthly pull-up, the price difference structure of methanol near low far high means that the risk of futures withdrawal under spot stagflation is increased. In terms of LLDPE, since July 2011, the spot price of LLDPE has maintained the feature of premium, with the price difference hovering around - 500 points, while on March 4, the difference converged to - 60 points, which means that the future price of LLDPE is facing the risk of diving. In terms of PP, the original structure of high rise in spot price has been weakened, the difference between futures spot prices has changed from - 600 to - 400, which means that the forward price needs to fall to repair the price difference.

warehouse receipt full risk increases,

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as chemical products, warehouse receipts to a large extent determines the sustainability of the rising market. The substantial increase of warehouse receipts means that the supply is loose the short delivery capacity is strong, which may lead to high-level selling of goods realize the purpose of de stocking running volume. After a strong rebound in February early March, most of the chemical warehouse receipts showed significant growth. According to

data, as of March 4, the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased to 43366, 491 more than the previous delivery day, less than 10000 in November December last year. However, methanol warehouse receipts have not yet seen a significant increase. At the beginning of March, there were 416 warehouse receipts, a sharp decrease compared with January, but significantly higher than the 47 receipts in the same period last year. For LLDPE PP, the exchange warehouse receipt is not referential, but the high social inventory means that they are also facing selling pressure in the future market.

in short, under the strong US dollar environment, international crude oil does not have the power to further rebound, while the seasonal overhaul exping inventory from March to April mean that the crude oil is more likely to return to the downward trend. In March, the cost of products will be weakened in the peak season.


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