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There is still room to rebound in February

wallpapers News 2020-06-25

in February, the overall performance of the rubber plastic market was mild, the market showed signs of bottoming out stopping falling. Some products of rubber general plastics rebounded, the trend of synthetic rubber was commendable, with a large rebound range. The rubber plastic industry index rose from 655 to 674, up 19 points in a month. On the one h, crude oil rebounded, the price of refined oil was raised twice. The favorable cost had a boosting effect on the downstream chemical rubber plastic industry. Moreover, there was also a positive economic news. The BCI index of February 2015 was 0.11, with an average increase of 1.51%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in February was exping compared with the previous month, the economy showed signs of stabilization, the improvement of economic data was also beneficial to the traditional economy The chemical industry has brought about a turnaround, but in terms of the terminal sector, the weak dem still restricts the pace of market rise. It coincides with the Spring Festival, the market has entered the traditional off-season, the downstream operating rate is low, factories generally do not hoard goods, social inventory has dropped to a low level, the transaction is cold.

according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2015, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the rubber plastic plate with a month on month rise fall list, of which 4 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities of increase were styrene butadiene rubber (1502) (9.93%), cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (9.07%) EPS (5.56%). There were 7 kinds of commodities with

declining on a month on month basis. The top three products were PVC (- 2.81%), nitrile rubber (- 2.24%) CPP film (- 1.72%).

were up or down 1.99% this month.

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the rubber market rose sharply in February.

the overall rubber market rose in February. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the rubber index in February rose from 597 points at the beginning of the month to 606 points at the end of the month, an increase of 9 points, an increase of 1.51%. The rise of the rubber industry was mainly affected by the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, which rose by nearly 10% in February. In addition, natural rubber also had a good performance in February. And special adhesive has continued the previous weak decline state, the overall decline is less than 3%. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2015, there were 4 kinds of goods rising 2 kinds of goods falling in the price up down list of rubber prices in February 2015. The main commodities that rose were styrene butadiene rubber ( 9.93%), cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber ( 9.07%) SBS ( 2.80%); the main commodities falling were butyl rubber (- 1.49%) nitrile rubber (- 2.24%). This month, the average rise fall was 3.19%.

In terms of

synthetic rubber, Sinopec PetroChina moved up the factory price one after another, leading dealers' quotation to rise one after another. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of Sinopec PetroChina synthetic rubber increased by 900-1200 yuan / T in February. In addition, the upstream butadiene price rose by 5.46% in February according to the monitoring of the business agency The price adjustment supported the rise of synthetic rubber by nearly 10% in February. However, according to the business club, although the price adjustment of Sinopec was positive, the downstream holiday started late before after the festival, the operating rate was low, which maintained at about 60%, resulting in a flat transaction in February a low transaction price. As for natural rubber, the spot price rose by 1.07% in February. After the rise at the beginning of the month, the market performance was weak returned to stable. The contradiction between supply dem is still the main factor affecting the price of natural rubber: on the supply side, due to the Spring Festival holiday, many dealers stopped purchasing, the reserves of natural rubber decreased, the supply was in relative shortage, the price rose for a short time; in addition, in February, the Thai government used 6 billion baht to collect store natural rubber, resulting in a short-term high international spot price, resulting in China's natural rubber mainly imported The price has gone up. However, affected by weak terminal dem, the market did not continue to warm up in the middle of the month. On the contrary, the domestic supply dem of specialty rubber did not improve significantly (it is reported that butyl rubber Yanshan Petrochemical has stopped, but there is still a large amount of inventory), which leads to the weak decline of special rubber in February due to the lack of strong support from downstream dem.

general plastics rebounded engineering plastics rose mildly.

plastics market rose in February as a whole. According to the monitoring of business agency, the plastic index in February increased by 14 points from 766 points at the beginning of the month to 780 points at the end of the month.

General Plastics: the general plastics market turned red this month, the market rose moderately. Except for PVC, other products increased in varying degrees, with obvious increases in EPS (5.56%), LDPE (5.17%) PP drawing (4.80%). The reason for the rebound of general plastics is that, on the one h, it is caused by the rise of upstream costs, on the other h, it is driven by the speculation of petrochemical industry, but the downstream dem has not improved significantly. In terms of upstream products, according to the monitoring of business associations, most of the upstream chemicals increased significantly in February: ethylene (11.26%), propylene (13.11%), styrene (7.29%) butadiene (5.46%), which brought cost benefits to downstream PE, PP, PS, EPS, ABS other products. In addition, in terms of market supply dem, it coincides with the lunar new year, traders generally do not have much supply in their hs, the limited supply of goods on the market leads to short-term supply shortage. In particular, after the festival, downstream factories start to work one after another, generally do not stock up before the festival. To a certain extent, the dem is enlarged after the festival. Petrochemical manufacturers take advantage of the opportunity to hype up the ex factory prices, which also promotes the market Love goes high. It is expected that the market will continue to rebound, but the range is limited. It is expected that the rising space will be 3-5%, the duration will not be too long.

Engineering Plastics: the index of engineering plastics sector of business society rose from 735 points at the beginning of the month to 742 points at the end of the month, up 7 points, or 0.95%. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic engineering plastics market recovered in a narrow range in February, with more gains than decreases, the increase was greater than the decline: pet (4.63%), PA6 (2.47%), PA66 (1.80%), PC (- 0.83%) POM (- 1.29%), limited to the lunar new year, the atmosphere of stock preparation before the festival was not strong, the merchants entering the market after the festival successively entered the market. In particular, the prices of some crude oil related products rose slightly, driven by the rise of raw material prices, but the overall trading atmosphere was relatively light.

caused the market trend of engineering plastics products in this month mainly due to the following aspects: firstly, from the perspective of the industrial chain, pet PA6, which are closely related to the price of crude oil, have the largest increase. For example, pet, the upstream raw material ethylene glycol, rose by 3.63%, PTA rose by 473%, the price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 increased by 11.11%. The favorable factors in cost made the whole industrial chain recover in a narrow range. On the other h, from the perspective of the supply chain, the engineering plastics market has been in a downturn for a long time. Downstream factories purchase on dem buy as you use them. Dealers have less supply on h are unable to raise market prices, such as PC PA66. Thirdly, some of the imported goods hit the domestic market. For a time, the price rises falls in the market, the quotation is disorderly. Some dealers choose small orders low prices, such as PC, POM, etc. It is expected that in the medium long term, there are not many orders for engineering plastics products after the festival, dealers generally look down on the future market; in the short term, with the downstream enterprises starting in spring, the market price of engineering plastics is expected to further recover in March. Forecast of

:

Xue Jinlei, an analyst in rubber plastic industry of

business association, believes that the overall situation of rubber plastics market in February was better than that in January, mainly due to the cost driven, supply dem did not significantly improve, the market is still in low inventory, low transaction background, the market recovery in February can only be regarded as the short-term rebound behavior of the market, but can the market continue to rebound in the near future?

rubber: it is expected that due to the impact of petrochemical upstream prices, the price of synthetic rubber will remain relatively strong in the near future. If downstream enterprises start a large scale in March dem increases greatly, the rising momentum will continue to the second quarter, but the range will be reduced, the increase will return to less than 5%. If the dem is difficult to keep up, synthetic rubber may start to decline in the middle late March. In terms of natural rubber, although the downstream dem is still sluggish, due to the decrease of supply in the short term, the price of natural rubber in March will still rise weakly, with an increase of less than 2%; the market fundamentals of special rubber will not change much, but will probably stop falling rebound due to the price of synthetic rubber natural rubber.

General Plastics: at present, petrochemicals still has the possibility of pushing prices. If downstream enterprises start large scale in March, the dem will continue to increase. It is expected that the market will still adjust upward in March. However, whether the market can continue to the second quarter is still open to discussion. On the one h, the uncertainty of crude oil, the high dem for normalization of medium-term low oil prices, the dem for downstream products is not obvious The growth point, as well as the expected increase in supply brought by the expansion of production, is expected to be controlled at 3-5%.

Engineering Plastics: in the long run, people in the industry generally believe that the market situation in 2015 will be more severe than that in 2014. There are not many orders for engineering plastics products after the festival, dealers generally look down on the future market. However, in the near future, with the downstream enterprises starting work in spring, the market price of engineering plastics is expected to further recover in March, especially PET, nylon sheet 6 66 The range is about 2%.

to sum up, it is expected that the upward trend of the rubber plastic market will continue until the end of March to the beginning of April, the rubber plastic index will rise by 10-15 points, the rubber plastic index will break through 690 points by the end of March. "


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