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Three advantages promote coal tar market rebound

wallpapers News 2020-07-26

In January, the domestic coal tar (mainly refers to high-temperature coal tar) market ushered in a rapid rebound.

The main production areas continued the trend of inertia bottoming in the first ten days of January, began to rebound in the middle of January.

As of January 31, the main transaction price in East China rose to 1850 yuan (ton price, the same below), 1800 yuan in North China market 1300 yuan in low price region northeast market.

The above three regions have increased by 12%, 12.

5% 11.

5% respectively in the past half month, which has led to the rebound in other regions to varying degrees.

So far, the continuous decline of coal tar Market for more than August ended, boosting the confidence of the industry increasing market attention.

The reporter learned from the front line of the market that the coal tar market, which should have been weakened due to the reduction of the burden of deep processing enterprises, rebounded against the trend went up.

Transactions were active in various places, social supplies were still insufficient.

A person in charge of a large-scale coal tar deep processing enterprise in Hebei said that the current market rebound was mainly caused by favorable factors such as the start of stock preparation before the festival, the expected decline of coking enterprises' load, the beginning of bottoming of downstream products.

In addition, the high-temperature coal tar homologues of medium low-temperature coal tar stabilized at the end of the month, which also injected a strong agent into the market played a positive role in boosting.

First, enterprises prepare goods before the festival, the social supply of goods is insufficient According to the introduction of coal tar processing enterprises in Hebei, Shong, Henan, Shanxi other places, after eight months of continuous decline in the market in 2014, the social inventory of coal tar has dropped to a new low since last year.

Affected by the uncertainty of when the decline is in the end, the inventory of coke enterprises, traders, processing enterprises other links showed a step-by-step decline.

In addition to the high-priced inventory of some traders last year, the social inventory of coal tar has dropped to a new low level since last year, There is almost no new inventory increment, enterprises adopt the production marketing strategy of purchasing on dem fast in fast out.

Especially in the middle of January, the domestic market hit a new low.

Under the background of low inventory of processing enterprises at the end of the year the sharp decline of purchasing costs, most enterprises or traders worried about the market situation after the Spring Festival started the stock increase stock preparation plan to ensure the normal production after the Spring Festival.

The market transaction atmosphere is more active, the supply of goods highlights insufficient, driving the rapid rebound of the market.

Second, the load is expected to drop again, enterprises reduce supply.

According to incomplete statistics, the operating rate of coke enterprises in all regions of China has decreased near the Spring Festival, there are still plans to reduce the load during the Spring Festival.

At present, the operating rate of various regions is about 60% in Hebei, 80% in Shong Jiangsu, 70% in Anhui, Henan Shanxi, 50% in Northeast northwest, 40% in Southwest China 70% in South China.

As the coke market is still in a weak position, it is unlikely that the market will recover well in the short term, local coke enterprises may reduce production again.

According to the person in charge of coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi other places, the coal tar production may be reduced from February to March, the reduction rate is expected to be about 10%.

At the same time, some enterprise leaders also said that because the current enterprises have no inventory pressure, not only downstream deep processing enterprises prepare goods, but also coking enterprises will appropriately increase inventory when the current market is low, so as to stabilize the market trend after the year, hope to walk out of a warm repair market on the basis of the current rebound.

Third, the downstream began to build a bottom, the market generally stabilized.

From domestic coal tar pitch, carbon black, phthalic anhydride other enterprises, coal tar pitch has dropped to a historical low price, the falling space is relatively limited.

Some enterprises said that sales began to improve compared with the earlier period, the market showed signs of stabilizing warming.

Other downstream products such as coal tar, naphthalene, carbon black, anthracene oil all showed an upward trend, the market generally began to build a bottom.

Once the coal tar downstream products build a successful bottom, do not rule out the possibility that the market continues to rise.

In addition, the market of medium temperature low-temperature coal tar of high-temperature coal tar homologues has stabilized in recent years, the prices in some regions have increased slightly, which may drive the high-temperature coal tar from low-cost areas into the oil transfer market.

At that time, the shortage of supply is expected to boost the market to stabilize improve again.

According to the prediction of insiders in the coal chemical industry, with the completion commissioning of large-scale coal tar deep processing units in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shanxi other places in 2015, the prospect of deep processing of coal tar can still be expected.

In addition, at present, the rebound energy of crude oil has begun to gather, the possibility of another deep fall is not great, which is another macro positive for the coal tar market.

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